2024 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast is Alarming
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The 2024 Atlantic hurricane forecast warns of a particularly severe hurricane season. This is bad news on multiple levels – emergency preparedness, crude oil production and refining, and natural gas production, to name just a few.
Risks and Issues Associated with the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
Meteorologists are expecting anywhere from 20-30 named storms this year during hurricane season (from June 1 to Nov. 30). In 2023, there were 20 named storms but only 1 made landfall in the U.S. Therefore, 2024 has the potential to be much worse than 2023, and if it is, it would serve as the most severe hurricane season ever.
Obviously, the biggest risk for utilities is the frequency and duration of service interruptions or outages. Severe weather is the cause of most outages, something exasperated by old infrastructure. With this in mind, utilities should amp up their emergency training, drill and exercise activities to hone skills.
A less obvious negative impact is on the oil and natural gas industries. Hurricanes can cause disruptions to crude oil production and refinery operations. In the U.S., crude oil production is concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico, which is obviously an area of risk for hurricane activity. Refineries along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast account for roughly 50% of U.S. refining capacity.
Hurricanes can also interrupt natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, including liquified natural gas (LNG) export operations. However, the impact is small compared to crude oil operations because the Gulf only produced 2% of marketed natural gas production in 2023.
As you can see, hurricanes present a set of unique challenges. The impact on utility infrastructure, and the resulting restoration activities, seem like the most problematic item, followed by the risk of negatively impacting crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. The impact to natural gas operations seems like the lowest risk. But no matter how you slice it, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane forecast should serve as an early warning to be prepared.
