Decades of Hurricane Landfall Data Analyzed

Forbes recently published an article that highlighted 50 years’ worth of hurricane landfall data, and the resulting picture is anything but pretty.  Hurricanes (called tropical cyclones in other parts of the world) that make landfall are by far the most catastrophic type of event in terms of property damage.  In fact, the 3 costliest disasters in 2019 were caused by hurricanes, racking up a combined $26 billion in losses.

Explaining Hurricane Landfall Data

Up until about 10 years ago, scientists had never developed or analyzed hurricane landfall data, and so we are just now starting to understand the scope of the risk.  Storms with wind speeds of 74 miles per hour or more are classified as hurricanes, and landfall happens when the eye of a storm passes over a coastline.  Approximately 33% of all hurricanes make landfall each year. 

The surprising thing about the data, to me at least, is that there is no upward trend.  As you can see here, there are a lot of ups and downs in the data set, but no clear trend is present.  This is surprising to me because I assumed that the data would show an upward trend due to climate change, but alas this is not the case. 

That said, the analysis is still important for emergency preparedness.  The data is being used to help improve disaster warnings, as well as forecasts, which in turn can even help utilities improve emergency response plans and protocols.  Simply put, utilities can execute more effective and efficient storm response if they have a better understanding of damage potential, storm timelines, and storm durations. 

The scientists spearheading the analysis of the hurricane landfall data are certainly not done yet – ongoing analysis will continue for years or decades, and the resulting conclusions will become clearer as time goes on.  This is great news for utilities as well as society as a whole, because the better we understand events of this magnitude, the more prepared we can be!