How AI Electricity Consumption Will Impact Future Demand
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Artificial intelligence is embedding itself further and further into our society, and because of this, it’s just a matter of time before AI electricity consumption will become a larger piece of the overall demand pie than it is today. Exasperated by the predicted proliferation of data centers, AI seems destined to be a real energy hog going forward.
The AI Electricity Consumption Forecast
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), data center, cryptocurrency, and AI electricity consumption could double in 2026 relative to 2022 levels. Although it’s difficult to pinpoint these predictions down to AI alone, the trend nonetheless tells an interesting story that should prompt some discussions across the utility industry.
The IEA estimates that the technologies referenced above account for about 2% of global electricity consumption today, but that percentage will increase every year for the foreseeable future. This would translate into an estimated range of 160-590 terawatt hours (TWh) of additional electricity by 2026.
So, while on a percentage basis the growth looks a little weak, the raw data sheds a completely different light. But even the maximum estimate of 590 TWh is only about 17% of the total predicted amount of additional electricity that will be consumed in 2026 compared to 2022. Thanks to electric vehicles (EVs), the total amount of predicted additional electricity consumed by 2026 is 3,500 TWh.
That is certainly a lot of additional electricity, but I think it’s manageable. And, assuming much of this additional demand can be provided by renewable energy sources, there should be no material impact on emissions, even at much higher demand and consumption levels.
In the final analysis, time will tell how much of an impact new technology like AI will have on future electricity demand. That said, I would have to assume that AI electricity consumption will remain only a small part of the overall pie going forward.
