Improved Hurricane Maps Coming Soon?
Hurricane maps aren’t perfect. They can be difficult to interpret, and predicted storm paths are only accurate 60-70% of the time. Although weather prediction models have improved, map visualizations remain confusing.
The Nuts and Bolts of Improving Hurricane Maps
The most confusing element of traditional hurricane maps is the interpretation of the range of possible storm paths, depicted visually as the “cone of uncertainty.” For example, many people believe the boundaries of the cone represent the size of the storm, are unaware of the standard 67% confidence level depicted by the cone visualization, and don’t understand how to differentiate between warnings and watches. Fixing these misinterpretations represents the foundation of developing improved hurricane maps.
In order to facilitate widespread adoption, any new hurricane visualization tool must be easy to understand, and provide only the information necessary to make a decision. Several media outlets have proposed improved visualization techniques (click to check out this iteration by the New York Times). However, none have been widely adopted, which is a critical success factor.
I predict that new and improved hurricane maps will eventually be developed and adopted by the masses. It just makes sense for weather visualization tools to be optimized, especially now that forecasting techniques have become more accurate. And when these improved tools become a reality, we’ll all benefit – customers, regulators, and of course, utility companies.
Why will everyone benefit? Because decisions around evacuation rules and infrastructure restoration will dramatically improve, which will save lives and reduce costs. Let’s just hope the enhancements come sooner rather than later.
