Is Operational Earthquake Forecasting Necessary?
Operational earthquake forecasting refers to the proactive monitoring and communication of any changes to earthquake probability within a specific region at a specific time. Said another way, it involves a continuous “risk meter” of sorts, that is updated and shared in real time. But some stakeholders aren’t enthusiastic about this approach.
Downsides of Operational Earthquake Forecasting
Earthquake forecasting in general has been a controversial subject within the scientific community, and operational earthquake forecasting is no exception. There are three main reasons why some scientists are skeptical.
First, earthquake activity forecasts are not particularly accurate. These events are much harder to predict than weather events. As an example, a key decision criterion is that 50% of large earthquakes are preceded by smaller ones. But that’s only a 50/50 proposition! A false positive could create unnecessary panic.
Second, even if the risk increases, the probability of occurrence is still extremely small (i.e., like moving from impossible to extremely unlikely). Due to the low probability, communicating an increased risk might lead to public overreaction and be counterproductive.
Third, there is little confidence that the general public would know what to do in the face of an earthquake early warning system. The specific risks of such an event are difficult to accurately explain. Additionally, the social media ecosystem would likely glom onto the warning and create a dizzying amount of noise and opinionated misinformation that would do little other than confuse the masses. Much more public education would be needed before the sharing of earthquake forecasts would be useful.
The Bottom Line
Of course, others like the concept, arguing that:
- An actual event would be so devastating that it makes sense to communicate the risk even if it’s tiny.
- Even a false positive would be beneficial since more people would take the time necessary to make their homes earthquake proof.
- The communications would boost overall awareness and make people more prepared if and when disaster strikes.
In the final analysis, the boom of social media makes the sharing of operational earthquake forecasting information both good and bad. What do you think?
