NERC Says Bulk Power Changes Could Degrade Grid Reliability

NERC recently painted a bleak picture of how changes in the U.S. bulk power system could reduce the long-term reliability of the grid, especially in Texas, which is expected to experience supply shortages over the next 10 years. 

Why Changes to the Bulk Power System Could Compromise Reliability

The alarming findings were published in NERC’s 2019 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, released 12/19/19.  NERC believes there are multiple risks at play with the bulk power system, not the least of which that all grid operators desperately need to gear up for more dramatic influxes of wind, solar, and natural gas resources between 2020 and 2029.  Another risk is that, for the first time in 15 years, peak demand is expected to increase, and is likely to increase even more in the future thanks to the emergence of electric vehicles (EVs).

Because many sources of renewable energy are located in remote areas, the report suggests that grid operators must launch large scale transmission projects to prepare for this evolving supply mix.  There is currently a dearth of such projects occurring or planned in the U.S. 

For comparative purposes, there are about 15,000 miles of new transmission lines planned for the next 6 years, versus 40,000 miles the previous decade.  The report emphasizes that these projects need to start now, because they could take up to 15 years to complete.

In addition to transmission projects, the report makes several other bulk power recommendations, including but not limited to:

• New technology must be deployed to address interconnection challenges and voltage instability.
• There must be a greater emphasis on coordinated planning to streamline natural gas projects.
• There must be a greater emphasis on reliability metrics, as well as the dissemination of industrywide reliability guidelines, so that grid operators understand what to measure and how.
• Grid operators must improve their willingness to work together to improve data gathering around DER integration.

There is little doubt that the bulk power system in the U.S. is about to forge into new territory the likes of which have not been seen for 100 years.  Hopefully, grid operators will adapt because if they don’t, we’ll all be in trouble.