New Hurricane Prediction Tool Launched by PNNL
Image courtesy of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center under Attribution 2.0 Generic License, resized to 700 x 391 pixels.
Pacific Northwest National Lab (PNNL) has deployed a new tool designed to make hurricane prediction practices quicker and more accurate. The initiative is an outgrowth of the restoration activities that took place in Puerto Rico in the aftermath of 2017’s Hurricane Maria, which left some residents of the island without power for over a year. Simply put, the PNNL tool can predict hurricane damage before the storm hits, enabling utility companies to plan ahead.
How the New Hurricane Prediction System Works
The platform is called the Electrical Grid Resilience and Assessment System (EGRASS), and it is funded by LUMA Energy (operator of Puerto Rico’s T&D system) and supported by the U.S. Dept. of Energy (DOE).
The platform is designed to simulate historical storm paths based on specific wind intensity estimates, and then make predictions around infrastructure damage based on the simulated model. And these damage estimates go down to a relatively granular level, making predictions for towers, transmission lines and substations.
By utilizing these enhanced prediction methods, utility companies can essentially get a head-start on storm recovery. The platform can help determine where alternative power sources will be needed in advance, where to stage crews, and what equipment to have on-hand, among other things.
EGRASS has been deployed in Puerto Rico, and this deployment is serving as a live pilot to test the system, validate assumptions to improve predictive accuracy, and plug gaps in the simulations. LUMA, the entity in Puerto Rico that is utilizing EGRASS, has so far expressed nothing but positive feedback.
At the end of the day, storm recovery is heavily reliant on accurate and comprehensive data. Any tool that can provide additional relevant data, or improve the accuracy of existing sets of data, is welcomed and appreciated. And in this regard, the EGRASS hurricane prediction platform is just what the proverbial doctor ordered.
