Number of Major Hurricanes Expected to be Above Average in 2020

Scientists from Colorado State University are predicting an above-average number of major hurricanes in 2020.  All told, the researchers have forecast that we will see 16 large storms, eight of which could turn into hurricanes with four of them possibly becoming “major.” 

What the Data Says About Major Hurricanes in 2020

The scientists applied four techniques to a set of models to analyze 40 years’ worth of data around weather patterns, ocean temperatures, sea level pressures and wind levels to produce a forecast for this year’s hurricane season, which generally encompasses the six months from June through November. 

The data suggests that there is a 95% chance that a hurricane of any magnitude will hit the U.S. this year compared to the historical average of an 84% chance, and there is a 69% chance of at least one major hurricane (classified as having a category of 3, 4 or 5) making landfall in the U.S. this year, compared to the historical average of a 52% chance.

To put these numbers into perspective, there was not a single major hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. from 2005 to 2017.

The key driver of the increased forecast is the mild winter, which has made the tropical Atlantic warmer than it has been the last few years.  The warmer the ocean temperatures, the more likely it is that storms of any kind, including major hurricanes, will occur.  And the scientists are relatively certain about this year’s forecast, mainly because there is no expectation of El Nino activity, the presence of which can alter weather forecasts.

The researchers went on to name the first four major hurricanes for 2020 – Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly.  If this forecast holds true, it would certainly make emergency planning and storm recovery more difficult this year.  Here’s hoping they got it wrong this time!