PJM Report Shows It Must Evolve to Handle Renewable Energy
A PJM report created in Dec. 2021, called Energy Transition in PJM: Frameworks for Analysis, paints a dire picture of future reliability in the context of a predicted increase in the amount of renewable energy generated in the region. Bottom line – the report predicts an overall decline in reliability as the amount of clean energy sources plugged into the grid increases. Not good!
Details of the PJM Report
PJM, which operates the grid in 13 Mid-Atlantic states and Washington DC, currently gets approximately 6% of its electricity from clean energy sources. With this current level in mind, the study looked at 3 scenarios: (1) a baseline scenario assuming 10% clean energy penetration overall, (2) 22% penetration by 2035, and (3) 50% penetration by 2050.
The PJM report concluded that the most aggressive scenario, 50% penetration by 2050, would present problematic outcomes. It would increase congestion on PJM’s transmission system by a whopping 50%. It would also lead to instances where production would exceed supply, requiring a 10% reduction in renewable sources.
It would also negatively impact reliability because the efficacy of certain key services provided by thermal power plants would likely decline as the level of renewable energy increases.
In order to combat these risks, the markets operated by PJM, as well as its transmission planning efforts, will need to evolve. Increased operational flexibility is a must, including steeper ramps, frequent dispatch of generators to their economic minimum, and lower capacity factors for natural gas- and coal-fired power plants.
PJM said that the report is an important step in understanding how it must evolve going forward. It plans to conduct additional studies focusing on issues like essential reliability services, transmission expansion and market design, in the coming months.
Kudos to the PJM report, and PJM in general, for being proactive and working hard to increase its understanding of what it will take to navigate the changes on the horizon. In a backdoor sort of way, this supports the mission of emergency preparedness by enhancing the overall grid planning process, and for that I am thankful.
