Risk of Flood Damage Expected to Dramatically Increase by 2040
I almost fell out of my chair when I read these statistics – the percentage of the global population that is exposed to the risk of flood damage is expected to increase from 28% today to a whopping 41% by the year 2040. That’s a total of 3.6 billion people in 2040 compared to 2.2 billion today. And the impact on the global economy in 2040 is even scarier, estimated to encompass a mind-warping $78 trillion. Yikes!
Why the Risk of Flood Damage is Expected to Rise
The statistics, which rely on new analytics from an affiliate of Moody’s, were published in a new report from Four Twenty Seven called Measuring What Matters: A New Approach to Assessing Sovereign Climate Risk. The report focuses on risk expectations for heat stress, hurricanes, rising sea levels and water shortages, in addition to flood damage.
In terms of increased flooding, the report offers several explanations, most of which I’m sure you’re aware of. The biggest culprit is climate change. In fact, the report predicts that by 2040, 25% of the global population will live in regions where the frequency and severity of hot days will far exceed local historical extremes. This will lead to increasing occurrences of rainfall, melting ice caps that increase sea levels, and increased wildfire activity which can essentially flatten certain terrains and allow flood waters to flow more easily.
Not only would this impact the temperature, but also water availability. Simply put, the hot temperatures are likely to dry up some sources of water – the report predicts that more than 33% of agricultural areas will suffer from inadequate water supplies by 2040. In Africa alone, this equates to 125 million people.
All in all, it’s a pretty grim story, but it’s better to know what could happen so we can prepare for it. There’s little doubt that the risk of flood damage, and many other types of climate-charged risks, are only going to increase going forward. This makes having a comprehensive and up-to-date emergency plan more critical than ever before.
