Root Cause Analysis of August Rolling Blackouts in California
A conglomerate consisting of multiple regulatory bodies has released a final report on the root cause of the August 2020 rolling blackouts in California. Although the results of the root cause analysis are less than Earth-shattering, some of the nuances behind the results are interesting.
What Triggered the August 2020 Rolling Blackouts?
The situation was analyzed by a committee consisting of representatives from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and California Energy Commission (CEC).
While many pundits expected the results of the analysis to conclude that the problem resulted from the assumption that the state has too much solar power in the mix, the committee’s conclusion painted a slightly different picture.
In the final analysis, the root cause mirrored that of previous events. It really boiled down to the classic supply and demand equation. Specifically, a period of extreme, dry heat, likely exasperated by the effects of climate change, created a situation where demand exceeded supply.
Apparently, the August 2020 heat wave was the worst in 30 years, and the negative impact of it was compounded by a failure to plan appropriately for a cleaner energy mix. Thus, the situation was like a perfect storm where weather conditions caused a spike in demand that could not be matched from a supply standpoint.
Hopefully, post-mortem analyses, such as the one described in this post, that help identify and prioritize lessons learned will eventually help to move the needle. Unfortunately, we’re not there yet. We need more knowledge, data and practice to optimize all things emergency preparedness.
