Scientists Introduce Volcano Warning System
A team of scientists from the University of Auckland in New Zealand has invented a new volcano warning system designed to predict volcanic eruptions before they happen. Although the system is not fool-proof, the researchers claim that it will accurately predict four out of every five volcanic eruptions, with nearly all large eruptions detectable well in advance.
How the Volcano Warning System Works
The system measures patterns of seismic activity, some of which may indicate the possibility of an eruption. Current measurements are compared against historical eruption data, which has been honed by machine learning algorithms, to create a level of predictability.
For example, one telltale sign of an impending eruption is a strong 3- or 4-hour burst of seismic activity that generally occurs 15-30 hours before an eruption, the result of fresh magma rising and pressurizing the water and gas that is typically trapped in the rock near the top of a volcano.
While geological monitoring systems are already prevalent in New Zealand and elsewhere, these tools are only designed to report on the activity (mainly earthquakes and volcanos) after the fact. The new volcano warning system would be the first of its kind with actual prediction capability.
The scientists claim that this system would have predicted the 2019 Whakaari / White Island eruption in New Zealand at least 16 hours before it occurred, potentially saving the lives of the 21 people that were killed during the event.
The volcano warning system technology is currently being integrated with the existing network of geological monitoring systems throughout the country, which are operated by a company called GNS Science. The technology has also been designed to be open-source so that other applications can utilize it.
Overall, this is yet another tool for the emergency preparedness toolbox. Although it may not be relevant depending on where you are located, the underlying technology could eventually be expanded to other predictive capabilities, and that is the part that is truly exciting.
