Snapshot of NOAA’s 2023 Hurricane Forecast
Image courtesy of Alexander Gerst under Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic License, resized to 700 x 391 pixels.
In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2023 hurricane forecast for the Atlantic region, something the organization has been doing for many years. All in all, NOAA is predicting a near-normal hurricane season in 2023.
Details of the 2023 Hurricane Forecast
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, and NOAA predicts (with 70% confidence) a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. Thus, the odds say that this year’s Atlantic hurricane activity will be normal.
But the burning question is, what does “normal” mean? Well, according to NOAA, the expectation is that 12-17 tropical storms (winds of 39 mph or higher) will develop, leading to the formation of 5-9 actual hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher). Of the predicted hurricane range, NOAA expects that anywhere from 1 to 4 of them could turn into a major hurricane (winds 111 mph or higher).
Despite the near-normal forecast, this year’s hurricane activity is expected to be lower than in recent years. The primary reason is that, after 3 consecutive years under a La Niña weather pattern, an El Niño weather pattern is expected this year, and El Niño is said to suppress hurricane activity. Eight hurricanes were formed in 2022, including the devastating Hurricane Ian.
NOAA also announced its prediction for the eastern Pacific Basin – 14-20 named storms are expected which falls in line with the average of 15 named storms in the region per year. This part of the forecast is less impactful, because storms in this area typically stay out to sea and do not make landfall in the U.S.
The bottom line is that normal is probably pretty good, and so NOAA’s 2023 hurricane forecast seems like something of a relief. That said, forecasting is not an exact science, so, as usual, utility emergency preparedness activities must continue to be practiced and optimized at all times.
