Summer Brownouts in the Forecast for Texas
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According to a report issued by Texas grid operator the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the summer of 2023 might be peppered with brownouts in northern Texas. Of course, this is just a prediction, and it largely depends on the frequency of extreme heat, but it certainly doesn’t give the citizens of Texas the warm and fuzzies.
Why ERCOT is Preparing for Summer Brownouts
According to Peter Lake, chairman of the Texas Public Utility Commission (PUC), on the hottest days of summer, there won’t be enough dispatchable power generation to meet demand (dispatchable power refers to electricity that can be generated on demand and excludes renewable energy).
What this means is that for the first time ever, dispatchable generation capacity will need to be supplemented from clean energy sources. And the riskiest hours on the hottest days are likely to be around 9pm, because it is still extremely hot at that time but it’s dark enough that solar power cannot be generated. On windy days this wouldn’t be an issue, but if neither solar nor wind power can be generated, brownouts are likely.
The primary reason for this is a population boom that has been happening in Texas. In other words, it’s a supply and demand issue, not an operational issue. According to Lake, “we have the equivalent of the entire city of Oakland, California moving to Texas every year.” Over the past 15 years, the state’s dispatchable power supply increased 1.5%, while the population over the same period of time increased 24%. Simply put, that’s a lot of people, and efforts to fortify the grid cannot keep up.
State lawmakers have proposed building more power plants to meet demand, but this is obviously not going to help in the short term. Shorter term, Texans will probably be asked to voluntarily conserve power on the hottest days, but this tactic can only go so far.
The bottom line is that Texas will experience brownouts this summer, and as such the state’s utilities would be wise to incorporate this reality into plans and protocols, especially as it relates to customer communications.
