The Case for Adaptive SOPs

I just read a fantastic article about the benefits of using adaptive SOPs (standard operating procedures), instead of predictive SOPs, during emergency situations.  Adaptive SOPs, as you can probably guess, are designed to evolve based on how a disaster plays out, whereas predictive SOPs remain static under the assumption that all outcomes, and the resulting courses of action, can be predetermined. 

Intuitively, it makes sense that an adaptable approach is better, but the question is why?  Let’s take a deep dive into the reasons why this approach is preferred. 

Why Adaptive SOPs are Better

Standard operating procedures or SOPs have remained a common management tool for police, firefighters, utility responders, you name it, for over 150 years.  They can offer specific rules to follow, as in the case of a checklist of recommended actions, or they can provide a loose framework for response.  In either case, SOPs have been utilized for a long time because they work, plain and simple.

However, as Bob Dylan once sang, Times, They Are A-Changin’.

Nowadays, adaptive SOPs are preferred because disasters are becoming increasingly complex, often creating unexpected results that render the use of predictive SOPs suboptimal.  According to the article, the result of using prediction-based rules to mitigate an event with a lot of uncertainties is called the “disaster dilemma.”

Although predictive rules are what have historically been utilized, they are no longer appropriate in today’s global and interconnected world.  Society’s high level of interconnectivity and codependence introduces many more variables into the equation, increasing the potential complexity of a given event.  In addition, thanks to climate change, the nature of large storms and disasters is becoming more and more variable over time.

What this means for utilities is that today’s emergency response model must evolve, adapting to the unpredictable nature of complex crisis environments.  Emergency professionals generally rely on their training, equipment, and experience, and typically act in accordance with SOPs.  But, in a complex emergency, the SOPs may be of limited use if the actual event deviates from its anticipated behavior. 

The bottom line is that utilities need to start thinking about how to integrate adaptability into crisis response SOPs.  Luckily, the article offers several models to create adaptive SOPs, and these approaches are a great starting point (warning – this is a long, academic article written by a PHD; do not read if tired!). Good luck!