The Patchwork Pandemic

I recently read an article from The Atlantic that dubbed the coronavirus outbreak as a “patchwork pandemic” due to its inconsistent spread across the U.S.  The inconsistency in the state-by-state timing and severity of the outbreak has, unfortunately, made it much more difficult to predict, control, and even understand, compared to more predictable events like a hurricane.

The Impact of the Patchwork Pandemic

Getting this virus under control was going to be difficult anyway, given that there is no vaccine, no chance of obtaining herd immunity anytime soon, and an increasing propensity for states to reduce social-distancing restrictions.  The fact that the outbreak is occurring in a patchwork fashion across the country will likely increase the challenge exponentially because it will inevitably lead to a second wave.

According to the article from The Atlantic, this patchwork effect is amplified by two things (the article lists three things but the third one is redundant):

1. The disease is slow to progress, taking anywhere from 4-14 days for symptoms to appear, creating variability and uncertainty around the pandemic curve.
2. There are many variables that impact the severity of the outbreak, such as testing capacity, population density, social demographics, and income distribution, and these variables differ depending on where you live. 

The nature of this patchwork pandemic will create something akin to a “mindset segmentation” within the U.S. population.  When the virus first gripped America, there was a strong, unified sense across the country that everyone was in the same boat.  But now that each state is experiencing a different stage of the outbreak, the general population has less of an understanding of what’s happening.  This, in turn, has led to the proliferation of conspiracy theories, hoax rumors, reduced compliance with social distancing guidelines, and even jealousy. 

This mindset segmentation will slow the recovery.  In order to maximize the speed of the recovery, everyone must be on the same page, working uniformly toward the same goals under the same plan.  Unfortunately, thanks to the patchwork pandemic, this is not the case.  

This highlights one of the key pillars of emergency preparedness, and that is that everyone must do their part to steer the ship.  Otherwise, the ship will go off course.  Or sink.