Transformer Supply Needs to Rise Dramatically by 2050
Image courtesy of Peter Van den Bossche under Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic License, resized to 700 x 391 pixels.
As you may have heard, the transformer supply in the electric utility industry is woefully inadequate at the present time. Because of this, the Office of Electricity and Office Policy of the U.S. Dept. of Energy (DOE) has funded an effort to gain a better understanding of the long-term demand for transformers in the U.S. Unfortunately, the initial results from this study do not paint a comforting picture.
Details of the Transformer Supply Study
As you no doubt know, transformers are a foundational element of the electric grid, but acquiring these critical components is difficult right now due to high pricing and long wait times. This is what prompted the DOE to fund the study.
The first phase of the study, which is being spearheaded by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), has been completed. The objective of this first phase was to quantify the number, capacity, age and use of the current U.S. transformer supply.
Based on the information gathered, the study estimates that overall distribution transformer availability will need to increase by a whopping 160%-260% by 2050 (compared to 2021 levels). The primary reason is not supply chain inefficiencies, but rather, an increased level of electrification in the face of an aging infrastructure and an increase in the frequency and severity of hurricanes, wildfires, and extreme winter weather.
The quantification methodology was to estimate the peak demand for electricity in the future based on a variety of macro-level events as documented in NREL’s Electrification Futures Study. Obviously, this is easier said than done, but the methodology makes sense and it’s clear that a lot of time and effort was put into compiling the results.
There is little doubt that the availability of transformers in the future represents a risk to the electric utility industry. Hopefully, phase 1 of this study, as well as future phases, will reveal what it will take to ensure that the future transformer supply in the U.S. is adequate…time will tell!
