Why Tornado Activity is Increasing

Image courtesy of Niccolò Ubalducci under Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.0 Generic License, resized to 700 x 391 pixels.

The U.S. has suffered through a lot of tornado activity so far in 2024.  In fact, the overall frequency and severity of tornados seems to be on an upward trajectory in recent years.  The burning question is, what is driving this trend?  Let’s dive in.

Drivers of Increased Tornado Activity

The short answer to the question of what is driving increased tornado frequency is climate change.   Simply put, warming temperatures have increased the frequency of the conditions needed for tornadoes.

Such conditions include convective available potential energy (CAPE), as well as wind shear.  Another impact is an eastward shift of “Tornado Alley” and a spike in tornados occurring in autumn, especially in the Southeast quadrant of the U.S.  All of these factors suggest a link – either directly or indirectly – to global warming.

Going deeper, we must ask what is driving the climate changes that are impacting tornado activity.  Well, according to recent research from the University of Illinois, climate change is “anthropogenic” (i.e., caused or influenced by people).  The study points out that the recent increases in cool-season tornado events specifically point to this harsh reality.

So, assuming that tornado activity is truly on the upswing, what can we do with this knowledge?  The most pressing course of action is to optimize early warning systems.  The earlier tornados can be identified, the better.  These events are so localized that a never-ending focus on improving the speed and accuracy of warning systems is paramount.

Along with improved warning systems, efforts to “tornado-proof” buildings and infrastructure in vulnerable areas are becoming increasingly important.  The implementation of more effective community planning and education programs will be critical going forward as well.

There is no doubt that climate change is problematic on multiple levels, not the least of which is the potential for increased tornado activity.  That said, at least the understanding that this is happening should help spur action.