How Likely is a Russian Cyberattack on US Utilities?
Russia’s ill-conceived attack on Ukraine has prompted concerns of a possible Russian cyberattack on critical infrastructure here in the U.S. – including utility infrastructure. In fact, U.S. intelligence analysts are already bracing for this possibility. But how likely is it? And, how severe could it be?
Probability of a Russian Cyberattack
Although the war in Ukraine has increased the risk of a Russian cyberattack, the threat was already established well before the first shots were fired. In fact, the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issued an alert in Jan. 2022 warning key stakeholders of this very possibility. The alert detailed how a hacker could gain access to the control rooms of U.S. energy companies and essentially flip the switch to kill power.
Then in Feb. 2022, federal cyber experts met with leadership from various large U.S. banks to review tactics for defending against such attacks. Soon thereafter, Russia invaded Ukraine, dramatically increasing anxiety levels because basically the first Russian offensive involved launching cyberattacks at the country’s bank and government websites. In addition, there have been reports that data-corrupting malware had been installed on hundreds of Ukrainian industry sector computers (some of which ended up spreading to computers in Lithuania and Latvia).
And the U.S. has not been impervious to cyberattacks from Russia. For example, in 2020, Russian hackers gained access to SolarWinds software, which is utilized by companies to help manage computer networks and allowed the attackers to compromise the networks of 9 federal agencies and 100 private companies. The attackers were able to remain undetected for an incredible 7 months, a very scary thought indeed.
The bottom line is that a Russian cyberattack is a very real possibility. Russia has pulled these shenanigans before and has been very effective in doing so. And the attackers have demonstrated a capacity to remain undetected for months, which makes one wonder if the U.S. is already under fire from a Russian cyberattack…and just doesn’t realize it. Time will tell, I suppose.
