Is Another Chernobyl Possible?
The 1986 Chernobyl event is widely considered to be the worst nuclear disaster our planet has ever seen, far worse than the 2011 Fukushima incident. Over 500 million people were exposed to radiation – 54 people died from radiation illness within 6 months of the disaster, and a 2006 study estimates that nearly 23,000 people ultimately got cancer from radiation exposure. But was this a ‘one-and-done” scenario?
Risk of Another Chernobyl-Like Disaster
Although it is unlikely that the Chernobyl disaster will ever be replicated, it is not a zero-risk proposition. Russia still operates 11 “RBMK” nuclear reactors – the same type of reactor involved in the Chernobyl incident. While that might seem alarming, one positive is that these reactors have been improved via “significant design changes” as recommended by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Another positive is that the employees working in nuclear plants are much better trained than the employees of yesteryear.
Therefore, the probability of another RBMK-specific emergency is extremely low and is limited to Russia. But that doesn’t let America completely off the hook, as around 30% of US nukes utilize a “BWR” reactor, which is the same type involved in the Fukushima disaster. But like Chernobyl, the cause of this meltdown has been identified and mitigated, so in theory the risk should be zero, right?
Not so fast. While the causes of the Chernobyl and Fukushima disasters are now understood, no one knew that these factors could have caused such a disaster before it actually happened. In other words, there are known-knowns, known-unknowns, and unknown-unknowns, and there is no way to say with certainty that there are no unknown-unknowns regarding the world’s ongoing nuclear operations. Adding to the risk is that a nuclear disaster does not always have to be accidental – terrorism or employee sabotage could be performed to create a similar result.
The bottom line is that, although extremely unlikely, thanks to unknown-unknowns and the presence of malicious people in this world, it is possible that a Chernobyl-like incident could happen in the future. This is why emergency preparedness – especially in the utility industry – is critical.
