Impact of Emerging Large Loads on Reliability
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A new research paper from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) delves into the potential impact of so-called emerging large loads on grid reliability.
Yes, this includes data centers, but they only represent one piece of the proverbial pie – other types include cryptocurrency mining operations, industrial facilities, hydrogen production facilities, and similar power-hungry customers. The paper is a must-read for anyone involved in grid-planning activities.
Overview of Large Loads and Their Impact on the Power Grid
The paper, entitled Characteristics and Risks of Emerging Large Loads, defines a large load as “any commercial or industrial individual load facility or aggregation of load facilities at a single site behind one or more point(s) of interconnection that can pose reliability risks to the BPS due to its demand, operational characteristics, or other factors.”
One of the main risks associated with emerging large loads is that peak-demand forecasting could understate the impact. If this happens, power outages could ensue. Data centers are predicted to account for up to 12% of all U.S. power consumption by 2028, but depending on their level of proliferation, the percentage could be much higher. This in turn could tip the scales and cause shortages.
Beyond the demand increase, the dynamic nature of these large loads necessitates that planning processes evolve. These high-volume power consumers are often characterized by unstable demand requirements due to frequent quick ramp ups. This makes modeling more complex and will likely require more advanced technology (and employee expertise).
In the final analysis, from an emergency preparedness perspective, the NERC report can be viewed as a warning of things to come. Despite best efforts, there is a lot of uncertainty throughout the industry, and the pace of change is accelerating. For these reasons, utility companies need to heed the warning and start planning TODAY for the inevitable increase in demand due to, in part, the rise of large loads.
